Monday, December 17, 2012

If...

"If" is an interesting word. It normally provides a basis for completely irrelevant arguments. For example: if the Lions were really bad, they would have lost to the Cardinals yesterday. But the Lions aren't really bad, so they couldn't possibly lose to a team that had lost nine straight, and got blanked last week fifty-eight to zip. "If" only. But surprisingly, this article will not rip the honolulu blue and silver. No, we are going to give them a while to search for their competitive soul. Rather, this article will be used to make my boldest prediction yet, but only thanks to the word "if." This time though, the "if" will hinge upon events that have not happened yet, as opposed to those that have already happened. It's a little confusing, so I promise to explain it. But it makes no sense without having a base event, upon which I am going to make this prediction. That event happened last week. Welcome back, Anibal.

Mike Illitch has no fears, well baseball wise, at least. The owner dishes out money like it actually grows on trees. He may have set himself up to fail with this last one. Five years and eighty million dollars for Anibal Sanchez; mighty steep for a number four starter. But this time it makes sense. Sanchez proved down the stretch that he was indeed worth the money, if athletes can even be worth that kind of money. The problem that could arise is the contracts of the top three starters, when their contracts end. You can expect Verlander, Scherzer, and Fister to all approach/top $100 million dollars in value, with the taco bell monster probably approaching $200 million.

Anibal Sanchez inked himself a 5 yr/$80 million dollar contract. photo credit: mlbreports.com


That's okay though. Yay for no salary cap. And when you've got the money (and Illitch clearly does), who dares to stop you? Illitch wants a winner so bad he appears willing to bankrupt himself to get it. I haven't seen his income statement, but I imagine its funds may be assigned elsewhere rather quickly.

So Sanchez is back in Detroit. The legend will continue to grow. The questions will continue to arise, many asking if Sanchez and Omar Infante are the same person. But what the Sanchez signing does for the Tigers is simple: no matter how much money Earvin "Magic" and the Dodgers plans to throw at free agents, no matter how many last minute, crazy signings their rivals across the freeway make, the Tigers are the favorite to win the World Series. Vegas's odds will likely change by the time opening day comes. But my first (way, way, way less bold) prediction is that the Tigers will have the best odds to win the whole thing. They have four All-Star caliber starters and a fifth starter with All-Star caliber stuff. I feel like a lot of people hear that term and don't know what it means, so I'll explain it (if you do know, skip down to the next paragraph). Drew Smyly's "stuff" is his pitching repertoire. And while he may not be ready just yet, his pitches have the ability to turn him into an All-Star.

So our series of "ifs" begin. "If" number one: if the Tigers make the right move in dealing Rick Porcello...

The Tigers now have the best problem in baseball: they have too many starting pitchers. You can count the teams with this problem on one finger. It doesn't happen in the big leagues except for every once in a while. That once in a while is very rare. But it's here. And now we get to sit back and watch Dave Dombrowski work his magic. There are a few options with Porcello, all of which hinge on a trade, and all of a which create our first "if." If I were Dombrowski, I would sit down Porcello, Brennan Boesch, Avisail Garcia, and Jhonny Peralta, put some ribbon around them, and send them in a gift bag to the Texas Rangers. I'd ask for Elvis Andrus in return. It may be a lot to give up. But Porcello's overrated, Boesch is...haha, and Peralta is old. He may be solid, but he's old, and an upgrade would be nice, if they can get it for the right price. Garcia is a tremendous young player, but so is Nick Castellanos, and there may only be room for one of them, anyway. Other moves concerning Porcello that would please me are acquiring either a nice young outfielder or a closer. Any of those three moves, and you can put a check next to our first "if."

"If" number two: if the Tigers starting pitchers stay healthy...

No one can question their talent. The top four for Detroit are better than any other in baseball. Don't give me the "there as good as any," because they are flat out better. Verlander is the best number one pitcher in the game. Scherzer is the best number two pitcher in the game. Fister is by far the best number three pitcher in the game. And Sanchez...well, they just spent eighty million dollars on a number four starter. He's the best number four in the game. Now the challenge is to keep them healthy, all year long. If those four stay healthy, then our second "if" is all set.

Justin Verlander's supporting cast (from left): Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez photo credit: cbssports.com


"If" number three: if the Tigers shore up the back end of their bullpen...

This can happen a few different ways. Bruce Rondon may be the answer. The fireballing kid could come in and be the closer, right away. Probably not going to happen without at least a few hiccups, but it's possible. More likely though, the Tigers will acquire a closer; or at least they will acquire a reliever who could take over if Rondon slips. This is the biggest need in my opinion. You could get by with Peralta, and you could get by with the outfielders you have on the roster. But Detroit needs back-end bullpen help. If they get it, well now we're cooking with fire.

That's it. Those three little things and my prediction is born. Now this is as bold a prediction as I've made. It doesn't make a lot of sense because only one of the players has accomplished the feat I think all of them will accomplish. Thank you for waiting patiently. If the Tigers make a good move with Porcello, if the starting pitchers stay healthy, and if the Tigers set the back end of their bullpen, then history will be made this year. My prediction is that the 2013 Detroit Tigers will join the 1971 Baltimore Orioles as the only two teams in big league history with four twenty game winners on one pitching staff. Verlander, Scherzer, Fister, and Sanchez would join Palmer, McNally, Ceullar, and Dobson atop the Mount Rushmore of pitching staffs. I guess we'll see "if" I'm right.

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